BHP's Chief Financial Officer, Vandita Pant, has warned that the global copper market could face a structural supply deficit beginning in 2028, with the shortfall expected to persist and intensify. Speaking at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London, Pant explained that the gap between supply and demand would be equivalent to the output of eight to ten mines comparable in size to Escondida, the world's largest copper producer located in Chile. This projection underscores the scale of the challenge facing the industry as it struggles to meet rising consumption.
The deficit is not merely a future concern; declining production from existing deposits is already putting pressure on supply. Pant noted that new mine development is necessary just to maintain current output levels, even before considering future demand growth. The increase in annual supply needed by the mid-2030s to satisfy growing consumption is substantial, and the industry is not on track to deliver it. This structural gap could have far-reaching implications for global markets, as copper is a critical input for a wide range of industries.
Demand for copper is being driven by traditional sources of consumption such as population growth, urbanization, and industrial development, but increasingly also by new drivers including digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, electricity network investment, and the shift to cleaner energy. Projections show annual global copper demand rising to more than 50 million metric tons by 2050, with data centers alone potentially consuming around 3 million metric tons per year. These new demand streams are less cyclical and more structural, making the deficit harder to address through short-term supply adjustments.
Pant distinguished between the long-term structural gap and temporary market tightness. She noted that temporary imbalances can occur when mining companies fail to meet production targets, as has recently been the case with mine disruptions and operational difficulties. The availability of copper concentrate has become increasingly constrained, and the International Copper Study Group recently lowered its forecast for global mine production growth to 1.3% for the year, reflecting downward revisions for Indonesia, China, and Chile. While growth is expected to strengthen to over 3% in 2027, the upward revision does little to alter the longer-term outlook.
BHP, the world's largest copper producer, is positioning itself to capitalize on the expected deficit. Copper accounted for over 50% of the company's underlying EBITDA for the first time in the 2025/26 financial year, and BHP aims to increase its attributable copper output to approximately 2 million metric tons by 2035, targeting average annual growth of around 5% in copper-equivalent production between the 2026/27 and 2034/35 financial years. Planned growth initiatives include expansions at Copper South Australia and Escondida, as well as the development of the Vicuna joint venture and the Resolution project in the U.S.
If the structural deficit materializes as predicted, it could create significant opportunities for other players in the sector. Companies like Numa Numa Resources Inc. could benefit from higher demand and prices if their exploration and development efforts reach production. The announcement, reported by MiningNewsWire, highlights the growing importance of copper in the global economy and the challenges of ensuring adequate supply for the energy transition and technological advancement.
