The latest Standard Chartered Greater Bay Area Business Confidence Index (GBAI), jointly released by Standard Chartered and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), reveals that business sentiment across the Greater Bay Area (GBA) remained steady in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite persistent external uncertainties. The headline indices experienced a moderate quarter-on-quarter retreat, attributed to diminishing returns from front-loading activities and a more cautious approach to investment and capacity utilization amid ongoing global headwinds.
The "current performance" index for business activity fell to 50.3 from 54.7 in the previous quarter, while the "expectations" index dropped to 51 from 55.7. Both indices, however, remained in expansionary territory, indicating that GBA businesses maintain a broadly positive outlook. Sub-indices painted a mixed picture: "current performance" sub-indices for new orders, fixed asset investment, and profit fell below 50, seen as a correction after earlier front-loading, while "expectations" sub-indices for production/sales, new orders, and profits stayed in expansionary territory, suggesting robust demand likely to persist into early 2026.
Hong Kong stood out among GBA cities, with its readings well above the survey average. The city's "current performance" sub-index rose 5.7 points to 57.9 and the "expectations" reading increased 1.8 points to 55.4, affirming that Hong Kong's economic rebound remained on course, driven by strong performance in professional services and retail/wholesale sectors. Wing Chu, Deputy Director of Research at HKTDC, noted that the extension of the US-China trade truce has boosted Hong Kong's business sentiment, allowing it to outperform other GBA cities. "This momentum in Hong Kong's recovery is expected to remain intact, supported by buoyant business activity and the professional services sector's solid performance," Chu said. The HKTDC will continue to support GBA enterprises in leveraging Hong Kong's professional services to go global and seize opportunities in emerging markets, including the Middle East.
The survey also explored GBA businesses' interest in expanding into the Middle East, revealing that over half of respondents (54.8%) expressed interest, with the UAE (53.9%) and Saudi Arabia (53.2%) as top priority markets. Among those interested, nearly 60% were engaged in trading/distribution, followed by manufacturing (42.7%) and logistics/storage (28.3%). Despite optimism, businesses identified top concerns: lack of understanding of local laws and regulations (50.4%), opaque regulatory environment and restrictions on foreign investment (43.1%), and cultural and business differences (42%). To address these challenges, 99.2% of respondents considered Hong Kong's world-class services pivotal to their Middle East expansion plans, particularly its professional services in navigating local regulatory and compliance requirements.
Hunter Chan, Economist, Greater China at Standard Chartered, highlighted that the thematic survey aligns with Hong Kong Government's policy focus to set up the "GoGlobal Task Force" to deepen economic ties with the Middle East. "With its advantage in professional services, Hong Kong can further leverage its unique position as a 'super-connector', becoming a springboard for enterprises to develop overseas markets," Chan said. The GBAI, jointly presented by Standard Chartered and HKTDC, is a forward-looking quarterly survey examining business sentiment and synergistic effects in the GBA, based on over 1,000 responses. The full report is available at Standard Chartered GBA Business Confidence Index Report and HKTDC Research.
